Is your money on the mobile web or the thick client as the emerging winner in the mobile technology space? will we see more J2me or will Ajax finally play a role on mobile devices?
For which industry ?
If it's the gaming, the answer is obvious. If it's content, it is really depends on the device manufactures, the mobile operators (quality, capacity etc.) and the community support and companies to actually create GREAT applications and not just rss aggregators.
J2ME and mobile web are not going to compete.
I develop j2me for 3-4 years now the uses it has are totally different then the ones of web surfing applications.
As far as ajax, while I think that in 3-4 years most devices on the market will support it, I still think the technology is irrelevant as long as sited doesn't create different sit layouts for mobile screens.
I think that as soon as someone figures mobile browser with adequate AJAX support and offline storage (ala Google Gears, Dojo, etc...) the web based applications will kick in big time. On-the-go computers like iPhone and its clones will only help spreading the web application usage.